European Economic Data Preview: Bank of England Minutes
European Economic Data Preview: Bank of England Minutes
The release of the minutes from the last meeting of the Bank of England headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. Mervyn King and company had embraced the rhetoric long espoused by perennially dovish MPC member David Blanchflower, moving aggressively to cut borrowing costs by a whopping 1.5%. Yesterday saw inflation slow more than expected in October with the Consumer Price Index falling to 4.5%, down from a 16-year high at 5.2% in the preceding month. This gives the BOE scope to continue to lower rates on the assumption that sluggish growth and sharply lower commodity prices will be enough to contain price growth.
With the markets pricing in 100 basis points in additional rate reductions over the next 12 months, traders will be scanning the minutes document for clues about the pace of easing rather than is likelihood. So far, at least the Reserve Bank of Australia has expressed concern with creating entrenched rate cut expectations that would fuel continued depreciation of the domestic currency and stoke inflation, opting for a “big bang” approach to get monetary stimulus out of the way quickly. The same considerations could very well be at work for the BOE, with the British Pound down over 25% since mid-July.
DailyFX
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